{"id":591,"date":"2022-05-30T14:04:15","date_gmt":"2022-05-30T14:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.supersurge.com\/news\/?p=591"},"modified":"2022-05-30T14:04:16","modified_gmt":"2022-05-30T14:04:16","slug":"how-to-invest-during-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.supersurge.com\/news\/how-to-invest-during-a-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Invest During a Recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For Frank Elderson of the European Central Bank, &#8220;the weakening of the incoming data does not suggest to date that we are entering a recession and we expect inflation to decline. It will all depend on how the war evolves and the impact of sanctions&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However what if we do enter one? Are we ready to change or adjust our investment strategies accordingly?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, we need to clarify that there are at least 4 different types of recession and the optimal investment strategies change from one to the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A recession can be a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>demand recession<\/li><li>supply recession<\/li><li>bubble recession<\/li><li>recession from isolation<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demand recession<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the oldest and most classic form of implosion of an economic system. The recession is caused by a <strong>collapse in aggregate demand<\/strong>. Although the causes may be endogenous or exogenous, the final result does not change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The vacuum of demand that is created, in fact, produces a collapse in GDP and a fall in prices. In the most serious cases, the economic downturn from demand turns into depression, as happened in 1929.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economic policies<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>State interventionism, especially through fiscal policy, is fundamental. The public demand for goods and services, in short, is able to compensate for the private one, pushing the economic engine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Optimal investments<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In economic demand recessions, <strong>long-term and fixed-rate bonds are the ideal investment<\/strong>. The drop in demand will, in fact, generate deflation, making bonds appreciate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply recession<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>An economic supply recession creates, at the same time, a reduction in GDP and inflation. In particular, this is due to a <strong>supply shock<\/strong>, which recedes. Production falls, while demand remains high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this context, the market will find an equilibrium with higher prices and less well-being. An example of an economic supply recession occurred in 1973, due to the increase in the price of oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economic policies<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>There is no optimal economic policy recipe in the event of a supply recession. A fall in interest rates, in fact, would push aggregate demand. This would create further inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An expansionary fiscal policy would have the same effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Optimal investments<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The optimal investments in this phase are <strong>inflation-linked bonds<\/strong>. In short, they make it possible to adjust interest and capital to the new general level of prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stocks<\/strong> are also favored. Since they represent real assets, they should appreciate in this scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bubble recession<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The bubble recession is linked to the financial markets. Although the 1929 crisis also depended on a financial bubble, this is a different phenomenon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2008, for example, the debt bubble burst, triggered by an escalating, self-sustaining spiral. A bubble recession is insidious, as it undermines people&#8217;s confidence in the economic and political system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economic policies<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Bubble recessions are characterized by a lack of liquidity. A strong and decisive intervention by central banks is therefore needed. Thanks to the introduction of new money into the system, the economy will be able to restart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The uncontrolled injection of liquidity, however, risks creating inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Optimal investments<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Panic is rampant during bubble recessions. For this reason, the preferred asset is <strong>safe-haven assets<\/strong>. <strong>Gold<\/strong>, for example, tends to grow in these phases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Recession from isolation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The recession occurs following, for example, a health crisis like the one of 2020. This, in particular, creates a s<strong>ymmetrical shock on both the demand and supply sides<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The production block generates a drop in supply. While this can create inflation, we also need to look at what happens on the demand side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This, in turn, decreases due to the blocking of the circulation of goods and people. The final effect will therefore be inflationary or deflationary, depending on the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economic policies<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>There are no adequate economic policies. In fact, the recession stems from a health emergency, which must be overcome. Political authorities can only facilitate the return to normalcy. However, the cause of the crisis must end for the recession to end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Optimal investments<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Fear for one&#8217;s health and uncertainty about the future depress all asset classes. Unfortunately, there are no optimal investments during isolation recessions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For Frank Elderson of the European Central Bank, &#8220;the weakening of the incoming data does not suggest to date that we are entering a recession and we expect inflation to decline. It will all depend on how the war evolves and the impact of sanctions&#8221;. However what if we do enter one? Are we ready [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":592,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[264,205,137,140,55],"class_list":["post-591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-news","tag-depression","tag-inflation","tag-investing","tag-investments","tag-recession"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to Invest During a Recession? - Super Surge Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.supersurge.com\/news\/how-to-invest-during-a-recession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to Invest During a Recession? - Super Surge Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For Frank Elderson of the European Central Bank, &#8220;the weakening of the incoming data does not suggest to date that we are entering a recession and we expect inflation to decline. It will all depend on how the war evolves and the impact of sanctions&#8221;. However what if we do enter one? 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